Iraq vs Norway: World Cup 2026 Match Analysis

Norway asserted themselves from the outset, controlling possession and pressing Iraq into their own half. Their dominance in the opening quarter was territorial rather than immediately threatening, but the first real moment of quality arrived in the 29th minute when Erling Haaland, assisted by David Møller Wolfe, broke the deadlock. It was a composed finish that underlined Norway's attacking intent, and it seemed to set the match on a predictable course.

Yet Iraq refused to fold. Ten minutes later, in the 39th minute, Aymen Hussein pulled the hosts level, converting with an assist from Amir Al-Ammari. The equaliser shifted the atmosphere inside Gillette Stadium and suddenly the model's 52.4% Norwegian confidence looked far from settled. Iraq had their foothold, and heading into the final minutes of the first half, the contest was genuinely open. That fragile equilibrium lasted only four minutes. Haaland struck again in the 43rd minute to restore Norway's lead before the interval, leaving Iraq to regroup at half-time trailing by a single goal but aware they had conceded twice to the same player in the space of fourteen minutes.

The second half saw Norway reassert control with growing authority. Iraq's attacking threat remained limited, and the numbers reflected a team under sustained pressure. The decisive moment came in the 76th minute when Leo Østigård, assisted by Martin Ødegaard, headed Norway further ahead to make it 3-1. Iraq's Zaid Tahseen picked up a yellow card in the 86th minute as frustration began to show, and any lingering hope of a comeback was extinguished deep in stoppage time. In the 90th+6 minute, Aymen Hussein added a goal for Norway, completing a difficult evening for Iraq and sealing a convincing final margin.

Norway's expected goals figure stood at 2.53, and the finishing data is unambiguous: they were clinical, scoring 4 from that 2.53 xG, well above expectation. Iraq's performance in front of goal was roughly in line with their 0.77 xG, with 1 goal scored. The gap between the two sides' underlying numbers was stark. Norway held 61% possession to Iraq's 39%, completed 536 passes at 89% accuracy against Iraq's 333 at 81%, and registered 12 shots to Iraq's 11. The most telling disparity, however, was in shots on target: Norway converted 5 of their attempts on goal while Iraq managed just 1. Norway also created 5 big chances to Iraq's 1.

The match produced 5 goals in total, with both teams scoring, and Norway's winning margin was 3. Norway's corners count stood at 5 to Iraq's 2, and Iraq committed 12 fouls across the ninety-plus minutes against Norway's 13. The numbers paint a picture of a match where Norway's efficiency in front of goal proved the decisive factor, turning a solid but not overwhelming statistical advantage into a result that was more emphatic than the underlying xG alone might have suggested.

With one round of matches complete in Group I, Norway sit top of the table on 3 points from one game played, with a goal difference of plus 3. France occupy second place, also on 3 points from one game, with a goal difference of plus 2. Senegal are third on 0 points with a goal difference of minus 2, while Iraq sit fourth on 0 points and a goal difference of minus 3. With the top two teams in each group advancing to the knockout rounds, Norway's opening result places them in an early position of strength, while Iraq face a significant challenge to recover across their remaining fixtures.

Norway's best performance at the FIFA Men's World Cup was reaching the Round of 16 in 1998, and this opening result suggests a squad with genuine ambitions of matching or surpassing that benchmark. The pre-match model had them as favorites at 52.4%, a moderate edge rather than a foregone conclusion, yet the actual winning margin of 3 goals and a clinical finishing display that outstripped their 2.53 xG by a considerable distance signals a team capable of punishing opponents who give them space. The ELO gap of over 100 points between the sides was ultimately reflected in the final shape of the result, though Iraq's brief equaliser in the 39th minute served as a reminder that the Lions of Mesopotamia are not without competitive quality. For Norway, the combination of Haaland's efficiency and a disciplined collective structure will make them a serious consideration for any side they face in the group stage and beyond.