WORLD CUP 2026 · NERD MODE

LIVE MATCHES

GROUP STAGE PREDICTIONS

TEAM ELO RATINGS

GROUP STANDINGS

RECENT FORM

WORLD CUP 2026

Nerd mode

Sun, Aug 23, 2026

LIVE MATCHES

standby

Nothing live right now. We'll surface in-progress matches here once the WC kicks off.

TOURNAMENT FAVORITES

Top 8 by win-cup probability — Elo Monte Carlo across 10,000 simulated tournaments.

Model output · not a guarantee

#01 · GRP I

France

11.8%

to win cup

#02 · GRP H

Spain

10.9%

to win cup

#03 · GRP F

Netherlands

8.4%

to win cup

#04 · GRP E

Germany

7.3%

to win cup

#05 · GRP C

Morocco

7.0%

to win cup

#06 · GRP J

Argentina

6.6%

to win cup

#07 · GRP I

Senegal

4.6%

to win cup

#08 · GRP L

England

3.8%

to win cup

BEST BETS

The model's three highest-confidence picks across the field.

Model suggestion · not a guarantee

Pick · HOME

Conf 0.65

Spain vs Saudi Arabia

Spain

72.4%

to win

+269 Elo edge

VIEW ANALYSIS

Pick · AWAY

Conf 0.60

Scotland vs Morocco

Morocco

69.7%

to win

+242 Elo edge

VIEW ANALYSIS

Pick · HOME

Conf 0.58

France vs Iraq

France

68.1%

to win

+229 Elo edge

VIEW ANALYSIS

GROUP STAGE PREDICTIONS

Match-by-match win / draw / loss probabilities and Elo edge.

124 total

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Group

124 shown

Matchup	Kickoff	Home %	Draw %	Away %	Elo Δ	Conf	Value	View
SpainvsSaudi Arabia	Jun 21	72.4%	20.3%	7.4%	+269	0.650	STRONG	Analyze
ScotlandvsMorocco	Jun 19	9.4%	20.9%	69.7%	-242	0.603	STRONG	Analyze
FrancevsIraq	Jun 22	68.1%	21.4%	10.5%	+229	0.576	STRONG	Analyze
SpainvsCape Verde	Jun 15	66.8%	21.7%	11.5%	+216	0.554	STRONG	Analyze
MoroccovsHaiti	Jun 24	65.3%	22.1%	12.6%	+203	0.527	STRONG	Analyze
EnglandvsGhana	Jun 23	63.0%	22.7%	14.3%	+185	0.487	STRONG	Analyze
GermanyvsCuracao	Jun 14	62.9%	22.7%	14.4%	+184	0.485	STRONG	Analyze
NetherlandsvsSweden	Jun 20	62.8%	22.7%	14.4%	+184	0.484	STRONG	Analyze
UruguayvsSpain	Jun 27	14.4%	22.7%	62.8%	-183	0.484	STRONG	Analyze
TunisiavsNetherlands	Jun 25	14.8%	22.9%	62.4%	-180	0.476	STRONG	Analyze
ScotlandvsBrazil	Jun 24	14.8%	22.9%	62.4%	-180	0.476	STRONG	Analyze
CroatiavsGhana	Jun 27	61.7%	23.0%	15.3%	+175	0.464	STRONG	Analyze
JordanvsArgentina	Jun 28	16.6%	23.5%	59.9%	-161	0.433	LEAN	Analyze
SenegalvsIraq	Jun 26	59.8%	23.5%	16.7%	+161	0.431	LEAN	Analyze
TurkeyvsUnited States	Jun 26	57.5%	24.1%	18.4%	+144	0.392	LEAN	Analyze
BrazilvsHaiti	Jun 20	57.1%	24.2%	18.6%	+141	0.385	LEAN	Analyze
vs	Jun 14	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.376	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 19	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.369	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 13	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.368	TOSS UP	Analyze
QatarvsSwitzerland	Jun 13	19.8%	24.6%	55.6%	-130	0.358	LEAN	Analyze
vs	Jun 18	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.352	TOSS UP	Analyze
PanamavsEngland	Jun 27	20.1%	24.7%	55.2%	-127	0.351	LEAN	Analyze
BelgiumvsIR Iran	Jun 21	55.1%	24.8%	20.1%	+127	0.350	LEAN	Analyze
GermanyvsIvory Coast	Jun 20	54.8%	24.8%	20.4%	+125	0.344	LEAN	Analyze
NorwayvsFrance	Jun 26	20.9%	25.0%	54.0%	-120	0.331	LEAN	Analyze
ArgentinavsAustria	Jun 22	53.8%	25.1%	21.1%	+118	0.327	LEAN	Analyze
PanamavsCroatia	Jun 23	21.2%	25.1%	53.7%	-117	0.325	LEAN	Analyze
IraqvsNorway	Jun 16	22.1%	25.5%	52.4%	-109	0.303	LEAN	Analyze
vs	Jun 17	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.303	TOSS UP	Analyze
EcuadorvsGermany	Jun 25	22.2%	25.5%	52.3%	-108	0.300	LEAN	Analyze
vs	Jun 21	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.297	TOSS UP	Analyze
EgyptvsIR Iran	Jun 27	52.1%	25.6%	22.4%	+106	0.297	LEAN	Analyze
vs	Jun 21	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.294	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 25	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.292	TOSS UP	Analyze
United StatesvsAustralia	Jun 19	22.7%	25.6%	51.7%	-104	0.291	LEAN	Analyze
JapanvsSweden	Jun 25	51.1%	25.8%	23.1%	+100	0.280	LEAN	Analyze
vs	Jun 11	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.279	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 27	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.277	TOSS UP	Analyze
ArgentinavsAlgeria	Jun 17	50.9%	25.9%	23.3%	+99	0.276	LEAN	Analyze
vs	Jun 20	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.273	TOSS UP	Analyze
TunisiavsJapan	Jun 21	23.5%	25.9%	50.6%	-96	0.271	LEAN	Analyze
vs	Jun 13	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.249	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 16	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.244	TOSS UP	Analyze
Saudi ArabiavsUruguay	Jun 15	24.7%	26.4%	48.9%	-86	0.242	—	Analyze
vs	Jun 18	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.240	TOSS UP	Analyze
NetherlandsvsJapan	Jun 14	48.6%	26.5%	25.0%	+84	0.236	—	Analyze
vs	Jun 14	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.235	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 16	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.234	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 15	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.228	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 17	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.224	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 27	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.223	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 17	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.219	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 17	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.217	TOSS UP	Analyze
EcuadorvsCuracao	Jun 21	47.4%	26.8%	25.8%	+76	0.216	—	Analyze
TurkeyvsParaguay	Jun 20	47.4%	26.8%	25.8%	+77	0.216	—	Analyze
SwitzerlandvsBosnia and Herzegovina	Jun 18	47.4%	26.8%	25.9%	+76	0.215	—	Analyze
CanadavsQatar	Jun 18	47.2%	26.8%	26.0%	+74	0.212	—	Analyze
vs	Jun 19	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.210	TOSS UP	Analyze
New ZealandvsBelgium	Jun 27	26.1%	26.9%	47.1%	-74	0.210	—	Analyze
vs	Jun 13	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.208	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 28	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.204	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 23	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.195	TOSS UP	Analyze
FrancevsSenegal	Jun 16	46.1%	27.1%	26.8%	+68	0.193	—	Analyze
United StatesvsParaguay	Jun 13	26.9%	27.1%	46.0%	-67	0.192	—	Analyze
vs	Jun 15	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.187	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 15	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.187	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 15	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.186	TOSS UP	Analyze
JordanvsAlgeria	Jun 23	27.4%	27.3%	45.3%	-62	0.179	—	Analyze
BrazilvsMorocco	Jun 13	27.4%	27.3%	45.3%	-62	0.178	—	Analyze
vs	Jun 12	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.178	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 18	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.177	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 24	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.176	TOSS UP	Analyze
CuracaovsIvory Coast	Jun 25	27.8%	27.5%	44.7%	-59	0.169	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 26	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.164	TOSS UP	Analyze
GhanavsPanama	Jun 17	28.0%	27.5%	44.4%	-58	0.164	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 22	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.164	TOSS UP	Analyze
SwitzerlandvsCanada	Jun 24	44.1%	27.6%	28.3%	+56	0.158	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 22	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.158	TOSS UP	Analyze
Bosnia and HerzegovinavsQatar	Jun 24	43.9%	27.7%	28.4%	+54	0.155	TOSS UP	Analyze
New ZealandvsEgypt	Jun 22	28.5%	27.7%	43.8%	-53	0.152	TOSS UP	Analyze
IR IranvsNew Zealand	Jun 16	28.6%	27.7%	43.7%	-53	0.151	TOSS UP	Analyze
Cape VerdevsSaudi Arabia	Jun 27	43.6%	27.8%	28.6%	+53	0.150	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 19	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.150	TOSS UP	Analyze
NorwayvsSenegal	Jun 23	28.7%	27.8%	43.5%	-52	0.147	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 28	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.144	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 21	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.128	TOSS UP	Analyze
Czech RepublicvsMexico	Jun 25	29.6%	28.1%	42.3%	-44	0.127	TOSS UP	Analyze
AustriavsJordan	Jun 17	42.1%	28.1%	29.8%	+43	0.123	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 20	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.116	TOSS UP	Analyze
AustraliavsTurkey	Jun 14	30.2%	28.3%	41.5%	-40	0.114	TOSS UP	Analyze
South KoreavsCzech Republic	Jun 12	41.5%	28.3%	30.2%	+40	0.113	TOSS UP	Analyze
HaitivsScotland	Jun 14	41.4%	28.3%	30.3%	+39	0.112	TOSS UP	Analyze
ParaguayvsAustralia	Jun 26	30.6%	28.4%	41.0%	-37	0.105	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 24	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.104	TOSS UP	Analyze
MexicovsSouth Africa	Jun 11	40.9%	28.5%	30.6%	+35	0.102	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 24	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.102	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 26	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.100	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 22	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.099	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 25	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.098	TOSS UP	Analyze
PortugalvsUzbekistan	Jun 23	40.6%	28.5%	30.9%	+34	0.097	TOSS UP	Analyze
UruguayvsCape Verde	Jun 21	40.5%	28.6%	30.9%	+33	0.095	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 25	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.092	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 14	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.091	TOSS UP	Analyze
ColombiavsPortugal	Jun 27	31.1%	28.6%	40.2%	-32	0.091	TOSS UP	Analyze
PortugalvsDR Congo	Jun 17	40.2%	28.6%	31.2%	+32	0.090	TOSS UP	Analyze
South AfricavsSouth Korea	Jun 25	31.2%	28.7%	40.1%	-31	0.089	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 21	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.080	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 27	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.078	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 27	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.070	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 26	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.062	TOSS UP	Analyze
BelgiumvsEgypt	Jun 15	38.4%	29.1%	32.5%	+21	0.060	TOSS UP	Analyze
CanadavsBosnia and Herzegovina	Jun 12	38.4%	29.1%	32.5%	+20	0.059	TOSS UP	Analyze
AlgeriavsAustria	Jun 28	38.3%	29.1%	32.6%	+19	0.057	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 24	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.055	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 25	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.053	TOSS UP	Analyze
Ivory CoastvsEcuador	Jun 14	32.9%	29.3%	37.8%	-17	0.049	TOSS UP	Analyze
vs	Jun 14	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0	0.032	TOSS UP	Analyze
EnglandvsCroatia	Jun 17	36.7%	29.6%	33.8%	+10	0.029	TOSS UP	Analyze
Czech RepublicvsSouth Africa	Jun 18	33.9%	29.6%	36.4%	-9	0.025	TOSS UP	Analyze
MexicovsSouth Korea	Jun 19	35.8%	29.8%	34.4%	+4	0.014	TOSS UP	Analyze
SwedenvsTunisia	Jun 15	34.6%	29.8%	35.6%	-4	0.010	TOSS UP	Analyze
DR CongovsUzbekistan	Jun 27	35.4%	29.9%	34.7%	+2	0.007	TOSS UP	Analyze
UzbekistanvsColombia	Jun 18	34.7%	29.9%	35.4%	-2	0.006	TOSS UP	Analyze
ColombiavsDR Congo	Jun 24	35.0%	30.0%	35.0%	0	0.001	TOSS UP	Analyze

TEAM ELO RATINGS

Derived from per-match Elo values in the predictions feed.

Rank	Team	Elo	Matches
01	France	1784	3
02	Spain	1771	3
03	Netherlands	1753	3
04	Germany	1747	3
05	Morocco	1733	3
06	Argentina	1732	3
07	Senegal	1716	3
08	England	1690	3
09	Croatia	1680	3
10	Brazil	1671	3
11	Turkey	1669	3
12	Japan	1669	3
13	Norway	1664	3
14	Portugal	1655	3
15	Ecuador	1639	3
16	Algeria	1633	3
17	Australia	1629	3
18	Belgium	1627	3
19	DR Congo	1623	3
20	Colombia	1623	3
21	Ivory Coast	1622	3
22	Uzbekistan	1621	3
23	Austria	1614	3
24	Egypt	1606	3
25	Mexico	1605	3
26	South Korea	1601	3
27	Switzerland	1601	3
28	Paraguay	1592	3
29	Uruguay	1588	3
30	Tunisia	1573	3
31	Jordan	1571	3
32	South Africa	1570	3
33	Sweden	1569	3
34	Curacao	1563	3
35	Panama	1563	3
36	Czech Republic	1561	3
37	Cape Verde	1555	3
38	Iraq	1555	3
39	New Zealand	1553	3
40	Canada	1545	3
41	Haiti	1530	3
42	Bosnia and Herzegovina	1525	3
43	United States	1525	3
44	Ghana	1505	3
45	Saudi Arabia	1502	3
46	IR Iran	1500	3
47	Scotland	1491	3
48	Qatar	1471	3
49		0	104