Big Balls Bets

Group standings

All 12 groups · advancement probability · recent form

Group K

10K Monte Carlo · 4 teams

PositionTeamPWDLGDPtsFormP(1st)P(adv)P(out)
1Colombia2200+36WW59%100%0%
2Portugal2110+54WD41%87%0%
3DR Congo2011-11LD0%13%36%
4Uzbekistan2002-70LL0%0%64%

Qualification scenarios

TeamStatusif Wif Dif LWhat they need
ColombiaWin + favours100%96%86%Colombia need a win against Uzbekistan AND favourable results elsewhere to advance.
PortugalWin + favours98%83%57%Portugal need a win against DR Congo AND favourable results elsewhere to advance.
DR CongoWin + favours42%10%1%DR Congo need a win against Portugal AND favourable results elsewhere to advance.
UzbekistanWin + favours20%4%3%Uzbekistan need a win against Colombia AND favourable results elsewhere to advance.

Pure deterministic math — no model prediction

Tiebreakers: points → goal difference → goals scored → Elo (interim). FIFA's head-to-head + fair-play tiebreakers apply when the matches touched produce a tie; this consumer-side sort doesn't model them.