Big Balls Bets

Japan

Group F · 2nd · 5 pts
Advancement70%
All groups

WC2026 · NERD

Japan

WDWDL

1

W

2

D

0

L

Elo rating

Updated · 8/12/2026

Elo rating

1669.2

Global rank

#11

Games counted

56

League

FIFA World Cup 2026

off-season — rating unchanged since the last match played on 2026-03-31 (145 days ago); last_computed reflects when the ratings job last ran, not new results

Stats

Goals / game

1.97

Against / game

0.95

BTTS %

45%

Over 2.5 %

55%

ATS

see Intel section below

O/U trend

see Intel section below

Qualification scenarios

Qualification scenarios

TeamStatusif Wif Dif LWhat they need
NetherlandsWin to advance100%95%78%Netherlands need a win against Japan to clinch advancement.
JapanWin + favours88%62%50%Japan need a win against Netherlands AND favourable results elsewhere to advance.
SwedenWin + favours60%35%21%Sweden need a win against Tunisia AND favourable results elsewhere to advance.
TunisiaWin + favours10%0%0%Tunisia need a win against Sweden AND favourable results elsewhere to advance.

Pure deterministic math — no model prediction

Upcoming

3 matches

Recent form

DWWWWWDWDL
DateCompetitionOpponentScoreResult
Jun 29, 2026FIFA World Cup 2026@ Brazil1–2L
Jun 25, 2026FIFA World Cup 2026vs Sweden1–1D
Jun 21, 2026FIFA World Cup 2026@ Tunisia4–0W
Jun 14, 2026FIFA World Cup 2026@ Netherlands2–2D
Mar 31, 2026Friendlies@ England1–0W
Mar 28, 2026Friendlies@ Scotland1–0W
Nov 18, 2025Friendliesvs Bolivia3–0W
Nov 14, 2025Friendliesvs Ghana2–0W
Oct 14, 2025Friendliesvs Brazil3–2W
Oct 10, 2025Friendliesvs Paraguay2–2D

Head-to-head

vs Netherlands

0

W

1

D

1

L

Goals 00 all-time

Last meetings

  • Jun 14, 2026Netherlands 22 Japan
  • Jun 19, 2010Netherlands 10 Japan
vs Tunisia

2

W

0

D

0

L

Goals 00 all-time

Last meetings

  • Jun 21, 2026Tunisia 04 Japan
  • Jun 14, 2002Japan 20 Tunisia
vs Sweden

0

W

1

D

0

L

Goals 00 all-time

Last meetings

  • Jun 25, 2026Japan 11 Sweden

Squad

26 players

Golden Boot contributors

Golden Boot

finished · 8/21/2026

#PlayerTeamGAMinPos
1Lionel MessiArgentina60200
2Kylian MbappéFrance42266
2Ousmane DembéléFrance41213
2Vinícius JúniorBrazil41261
2Erling HaalandNorway40180
3Deniz UndavGermany3286
3Johan ManzambiSwitzerland31129
3Ismaïla SarrSenegal31246
3Brian BrobbeyNetherlands30161
3Matheus CunhaBrazil30169

INTEL

ATS splits, recent trends, scheduling notes.

ATS splits

Overall
2-2-0
Home
1-0-0
Away
1-2-0
As favorite
0-1-0
As underdog
2-1-0

Trends

ATS L5
1-0-0
ATS L10
1-0-0
O/U L5
1-0-0
O/U L10
1-0-0

Schedule context

Days rest
55
Back-to-back
No
Home streak
0
Away streak
1

As of 2026-08-23

Tournament history

World Cup · 2002–2022
YearFinishGPWDLGFGAGD
2022Round of 16421154+1
2018Round of 16411267-1
2014Group stage301226-4
2010Round of 16421142+2
2006Group stage301227-5
2002Round of 16421153+2

Did you know?