Group standings

All 12 groups · advancement probability · recent form

Group I

10K Monte Carlo · 4 teams

Position	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts	Form	P(1st)	P(adv)	P(out)
1	France	3	3	0	+8	9	WW	100%	100%	0%
2	Norway	3	2	1	+1	6	LW	0%	100%	0%
3	Senegal	3	1	2	+2	3	WL	0%	0%	0%
4	Iraq	3	0	3	-11	0	LL	0%	0%	100%

Qualification scenarios

Team	Status	if W	if D	if L	What they need
France	Avoid a loss	100%	100%	97%	France are through with a win or a draw against Senegal; a loss would put them at risk.
Norway	Win + favours	88%	75%	58%	Norway need a win against Iraq AND favourable results elsewhere to advance.
Senegal	Win + favours	43%	21%	13%	Senegal need a win against France AND favourable results elsewhere to advance.
Iraq	Win + favours	5%	0%	0%	Iraq need a win against Norway AND favourable results elsewhere to advance.

Tiebreakers: points → goal difference → goals scored → Elo (interim). FIFA's head-to-head + fair-play tiebreakers apply when the matches touched produce a tie; this consumer-side sort doesn't model them.